Forecasting High-Speed Railway Demand in the Absence of Air Competition – A Case Study

The main competitor of air transportation is High-Speed Railway (HSR). However, in an oil-exporting country with low fuel prices and strong car dependence, HSR can face fierce competition private cars even buses. There little previous research that forecast modal share this situation. case study the Tehran-Hamedan route Iran has high travel demand due to several historical economic reasons absence transportation, building attracted foreign investment. To analyse behaviour passengers after introduction HSR, 409 stated revealed preferences were collected a self-designed questionnaire. Multinomial logit (MNL) model mixed (ML) developed each mode forecasted up 2045. compared other routes world see impact competition. overall railway estimated reach 64%, which close average major globally (around 60%). Therefore, be for when there no link on rather cheap.